精選觀點 & Webinar
To summarize the year of 2020, the opening lines from Charles Dicken’s A Tale of twin cities sounds like an accurate description. It was certainly the best of times and the worst of times. Global equities have been doing reasonably well with developed market up by 12.0% and emerging market up by 11.7%. Fixed income managed to gain by 7.4% whilst gold price was up by 19.1%. On the other hand, real economy has been suffering from the pandemic with almost all major economies getting into recession. International Monetary Fund sees the world would contract by 4.4% in total output, the worst crisis since the 1930s Great Depression with -5.8% among advanced economies and -3.3% on developing countries.
Dec 02, 2020
From a total portfolio perspective, global asset owners and allocators are increasing wary about the overall portfolio sensitivity to interest rate changes and ultimately risk diversification. The concept of “equity duration” was raised long ago and has been subject to debate for decades. While some absolute calculations fail to work in today’s markets, we believe the economic and financial intuition beneath still hold. In this working paper, we took a renewed approach to analyze the relationships from a relative perspective and with an overarching objective of total portfolio risks in mind.
Nov 26, 2020
As business activities in China mostly resume to a normal level, we also observed some mean-reversion in factor returns, and interesting rotation in sector returns. Still, China A shares continue to outperform the US and global equity markets. With “high-quality” growth emphasized by the 14th Five-Year Plan and “Dual Circulation”, we believe “Quality Growth” will continue to be the main tone of China A equities.
Nov 11, 2020
So, it is official: Exit Donald Trump, enter President Joe Biden. And when the cheering and crying is done, we are likely to see that the election meant more emotionally to Americans than it does economically for the nation, or financially for the markets. The big economic and market trends are unlikely to be changed by the election.
Nov 09, 2020
The term "dual circulation” is one of the hot searches in China and receives great attention after President Xi first expressed this idea at a top official meeting held earlier this year. He then elaborated further that China’s economic model will be involving an internal circulation developing a substantial domestic market, and an external circulation deepening the international trade. The latest meeting of Communist Party’s Central Committee reinforced this policy will be the core component of the 14th five-year plan for the development between 2021 and 2025.
Nov 04, 2020
The latest economic data confirms the upward trajectory of Chinese growth, putting China on track to be the only major economy to register growth for the full year 2020. And it highlights the attractiveness of China’s asset markets and supports the case for continued outperformance against other major markets.
Oct 28, 2020
Two separate news items last week focused our attention on the gap in understanding about the rapidly changing energy landscape in China.
Oct 20, 2020
Premia 圖說
吳偉鋒
Year-to-date Premia J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Investment Grade USD Bond ETF (Premia Asia IG ETF) has outperformed longer duration peers. Even as US Treasuries yield widened to their highest yields in over two decades, the Asia IG ETF has proven relatively resilient. Across assets classes, some investors now see US Treasuries as better value than US equities and started rotating from US risk asset to duration – yet Asia IG still offers a yield pickup over US Treasury - making it even more attractive. Asian credit spreads widened modestly in recent weeks on concern about Indonesia and Philippines, and have begun to retrace as those worries ease. In our view, the current spread level offers a better window to add to Asia investment grade (IG) credit. Indonesia has been viewed as the region's main fiscal pressure point, with concerns over state spending and the credibility of the 3% of GDP deficit cap weighing on Asian spreads more broadly. The government has since begun to rein in expenditure. While the announced measures look modest, but markets read them as a sign of discipline : Indonesia's 5-year CDS has eased from a recent high of ~96bps to ~91bps as of 12 October, pointing to stabilisation. Meanwhile, despite the near-term pull back in the US 10-year yield, large US deficits point to heavier issuance, so holding long duration outright carries meaningful risk. Shorter-duration IG credit offers a better balance. The Premia J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Investment Grade USD Bond ETF (3411/9411 HK) offers a ~4.3-year duration and a ~5.5% average yield to maturity, with an average A rating and around 10% in floating-rate notes. That lets investors earn carry and stay invested with moderate rate exposure. In a market still arguing over where yields settle, The Premia Asia IG ETF offers a way to be paid while the debate plays out — a better balance between rate bets and carry, and a more sensible place to “keep calm and carry on”.
Oct 14, 2026
