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Perpetual Put vs Recession

As we approach the end of 1H19, it is clear that the market now finds itself in a tug of war between the Fed Put and the potential for recession. We explore this dynamic, discuss Q1 vs future growth across the 4 major economies (US, Europe, Japan and China) and remind investors to stay defensive going forward by tilting toward value and quality where possible.

Jun 12, 2019

Aleksey Mironenko
Partner, Chief Distribution Officer

Who benefits the most from trade war?Nomura recently published an excellent report, estimating the trade war impact on the world’s 50 largest economies. Biggest beneficiary? Vietnam, by quite a wide margin, totaling nearly 8% of GDP. Taiwan, Chile, Malaysia, Argentina and Hong Kong round out the 1% or greater benefit to GDP list. Unsurprisingly, Asia ex China gains the most from US import substitution, particularly in the electronics, semiconductor and motor vehicle parts categories. If you’re looking for diversified Asia exposure, check out our Emerging ASEAN ETF (2810.HK / 9810.HK) or Asia Innovative Tech ETF (3181.HK / 9181.HK). The former has 0 China exposure and the latter is a diversified tech exposure with only ~40% China, focusing the rest on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Jun 18, 2019

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