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The deal is containment of conflict, not cessation of hostilitiesUS demands against China’s subsidies for State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) and control over the Renminbi remain unresolved core issuesUS targets for Chinese purchases over the next two years are extremely ambitious and at risk of not being metChina has bought some time to reduce its technology and trade dependence on the USChinese policy makers will likely maintain a cautious monetary and fiscal policy stance to avoid a “Japanese Bubble” outcome


Jan 16, 2020


With the current risk-on sentiment, it is reasonable for investors to look for growth area in the market. Yet, which sectors in China A-shares offer higher growth in 2020 based on the consensus forecast from the sell-side analyst? It would be essential to know beforehand for investors in allocating their assets in China market. That said, does it mean that anything outside the growth segments is not worth investing? Since China has been emphasizing on quality instead of quantity under the structural change of the economy, is it probable that there could be some hidden gems in the stable or slow-growth industries? We will try to answer these questions in this article.


Jan 15, 2020


2019 saw expensive asset classes get more expensive, a global yield back-up replaced by a yield rally, continued outperformance of DM over EM and Growth over Value (notwithstanding a few wobbles). As we approach 2020, we review market behavior during the last 12 months, the risk and opportunities going forward and make a few observations about trends that will dictate returns.


Dec 9, 2019


We review the history of Chinese consumption over the last 30-40 years and explain why we believe the Chinese consumer holds the key to global economic growth, not just in China but in every country connected to international markets.


Nov 11, 2019


Investors like to conceptualize mega trends into investment themes, which fund managers use to identify strong companies based on top-down investment approaches with a focus on broader, macroeconomic themes. New investment themes always emerge from time to time, such as dot.com around the millennium, social media & robotics in the past decade, or sharing economy & artificial intelligence not long ago. What do they have in common? Technology! A sudden shift in technology would make transformative changes that redefine work processes, rewrite the rules of competitive economic advantage, and eventually the structural breakthrough will bring the potential output to the next level. That’s why market is interested to find out if 5G is a crucial investment theme.


Nov 5, 2019


“Think about what is happening worldwide right now. The US is dragging down global growth by attempting to impose trade tariffs everywhere, China is facing a major economic slowdown, Japan continues their third “lost-decade”, Germany is heading into recession, and the UK is still debating with EU about the way of Brexit. These are just the highlights of how the top five economies are doing, not even mentioning the more troublesome territories such as Italy and Argentina which may have to deal with their escalating debt problems. These markets accounted for more than 70%-80% of the global stock markets depending on which particularly benchmark one is using to measure against the performance. The issue gets more complicated when the US market, weighting over 50% in most clients’ equity portfolio, seems to be exhausted after recording the longest bull run in history whilst still hovers at all-time high. The most imminent question among investors is where to find the peace in the midst of the storm.”


Oct 22, 2019

Premia 图说
  • 赖子健 , CFA

    合伙人兼联合首席投资官

ASEAN became one of the preferred destinations for China exports in 2019 on the back of the trade war between China and the US. China exports to the US fell by 12.5%, the largest drop since the financial crisis in 2009 as Trump kept rising the tariffs. With the uncertain bilateral trade of the top two economies, Chinese firms have boosted their trade with the rest of the world, especially members of ASEAN, which has overtaken the US to become China's second largest trading partner after EU in 2019. China exports to ASEAN went up by 12.7% in the past 12 months with Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia among the fastest growing countries. Thailand and Indonesia were running slightly behind as the designated markets with a mid-single-digit growth rate.

Jan 17, 2020
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