9 Insights with Topic: QualityGrowth
Consumer spending in China continues to grow strongly by international standards, even as the pattern of that spending evolves. The image of weak consumerism in China – as portrayed by the media – is misleading in two ways. For starters, the growth in retail sales in China is only “low” relative to the very high (mostly double digit) rates recorded in the 2010s. However, at 7.2% y/y growth in the full year 2023, China’s retail sales growth compares very well internationally. Beyond that, there are also changing social trends which are driving different forms of consumption in China, which then support investments that are more reflective of the transformation in China. In this article, we discuss more about how young Chinese are the main driving force in China’s consumer market and identify the winners of this quiet but significant sea change in consumer behaviour.
Mar 01, 2024
Extremely negative sentiment culminating Q4 2023 toward Chinese stocks have brought A shares to exceedingly low valuations for an economy with so much inherent growth potential, that it would appear the upside risks far outweigh the downside risks at this point. Meanwhile we see differentiating features of the bedrock and new economy indices including factors tilting toward bargain stocks and high-quality growth at a reasonable price, along with a concentration in strategic sectors that truly drive China’s real economy. In this article, Dr. Phillip Wool, Global Head of Research of Rayliant Global Advisors reviews the factor performance of the onshore A-shares markets in Q4 2023, and reasons why investors may look back at 2024 as a turning point for China’s equity markets, and outstanding entry point for a vintage well positioned for growth recovery in the new normal.
Feb 23, 2024
Surging Treasury yields and increasing anxiety over the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ policy led global equities to ‘risk-off’ in the third quarter, though the challenge for Chinese stocks in the CSI 300 Index, down -2.9% for the quarter, remained mostly a function of negative sentiment toward China’s property market and skepticism that policymakers were doing enough to put the nation’s economic recovery back on track. Nevertheless, we saw some very positive signs in Q3, with Beijing beginning to implement targeted stimulus that, by quarter end, already appears to be bearing fruit. From a factor perspective, the new economy portfolio’s quality growth exposure is effectively levered to the upside surprises we see as significantly undervalued at this moment, while the bedrock index should continue to benefit from value and quality exposures, allowing us to identify true bargains poised for revaluation. In this article, Dr. Phillip Wool, Global Head of Research of Rayliant Global Advisors, discusses third-quarter performance and outline our expectations for China’s economy and market as 2023 draws to a close.
Nov 06, 2023
The youth unemployment rate in China has been much talked about, however the phenomenon is often poorly interpreted without addressing the important nuances behind the structural, transformational and societal factors in China. In fact, the elevated unemployment rate is a transitional legacy from COVID and many countries also shared the experience of high youth unemployment. There is a lag in China’s youth unemployment data compared to western countries, given China’s relatively late reopening from the COVID pandemic. In this article, we discuss the structural factors contributing to the youth unemployment rate in China, and explain why the number will likely to decline and why the unemployed youth will be absorbed into workforce as China continues on its path of recovery.
Aug 24, 2023
In a refreshing break from the consensus of gloom surrounding China, Cambridge Associates wrote recently that the Chinese economy was not stalling. Meanwhile IMF holds steady its China GDP growth forecasts in the World Economic Outlook Update report released last week, at 5.2% for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares more about why China may surprise to the upside and the appeal of Chinese equities as a relative value play.
Aug 03, 2023
While global equities generally performed well in Q2 amidst a frenzy around A.I., sentiment toward Chinese stocks remained lacklustre as investor enthusiasm waned. That said there remained bright spots in the market that quietly outperformed - including our multi-factor China Bedrock Economy ETF which delivered YTD USD return of ~12.6% as of Aug 2nd 2023. In this article, Dr. Phillip Wool, Global Head of Research of Rayliant Global Advisors, reviewed the performance of various style factors during the quarter, and discusses why we see China as grossly undervalued going into the second half.
Aug 01, 2023
With the world except for China busy taming inflation, the China “lost decade” narrative has been driving pessimism over Chinese assets in recent months. How much of this fear could be substantiated and how much of it is fear of shadows? In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim reviews this topic from multiple angles, and explains why China today is unlikely to be Japan 1990 given significant differences in labour forces, total factor productivity (TFP), government policy focus, R&D spendings, financial resources and tools available to the government as well as structural growth from urbanisation and well capitalised state-owned banks that continue to support the case for China to avoid Japan’s secular stagnation.
Jul 10, 2023
While China's April data did miss market expectations, the disappointment was off very high expectations set by the market itself. In fact, the so-called April “disappointment” looks very different when viewed in a global context. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses why it is important to look beyond the underperformance of those high expectations, to properly address opportunities leading to China's own 5% growth target and IMF’s estimates for China to contribute around 30% of the world’s GDP growth for this year which still very well hold.
Jun 08, 2023
China markets witnessed strong rally since Oct 2022 trough upon China reopening and covid policy pivot, and we start to see investor flows rotating from offshore to A-shares which are expected to outperform with a longer run for rally. Where are we in China’s reopening trajectory? Who are the policy supported sector leaders well placed to outperform? These are the common questions frequently asked by our clients. In this article, we discuss the 10 most frequently asked questions that came up in our recent conversations with investors and allocators, and share more color about pockets of opportunities as China reopening evolves into the second act for economic growth recovery.
Mar 17, 2023