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主題相關資訊: 東協


After the smooth sail in 2020, 2021 has been a challenging year for investors with heightened volatility across global markets. Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, Emerging Asia and in particular China had a good start until mid-February, but then returned all the gains and stayed largely flat on increasing regulatory headwinds in China, extended COVID-lockdowns in southeast Asia, threats of power crunch and credit defaults among Chinese property developers. On the contrary, benchmarks like S&P500, Nasdaq and Euro Stoxx 50 all reached new highs during the year, and Nikkei 225 hit its highest point in three decades. Meanwhile, the divergence in the fixed income markets went the other way, as global fixed income market suffered a mid-single-digit percentage loss in return, while China sovereign bonds bucked the trend with a high-single-digit percentage gain. Where do we go from here? Is the Omicron virus going to reset the path to 2020? And how do we decipher impacts of the Fed tapering, inflation and interest rate expectations, and economic growth and policy trends in China? In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai assesses the world economics and markets current standings, focusing on China and Asia, and discusses how to reconfigure for new opportunities that arise into 2022 as a year of the new normal.

2021年12月8日

After the smooth sail in 2020, 2021 has been a challenging year for investors with heightened volatility across global markets. Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, Emerging Asia and in particular China had a good start until mid-February, but then returned all the gains and stayed largely flat on increasing regulatory headwinds in China, extended COVID-lockdowns in southeast Asia, threats of power crunch and credit defaults among Chinese property developers. On the contrary, benchmarks like S&P500, Nasdaq and Euro Stoxx 50 all reached new highs during the year, and Nikkei 225 hit its highest point in three decades. Meanwhile, the divergence in the fixed income markets went the other way, as global fixed income market suffered a mid-single-digit percentage loss in return, while China sovereign bonds bucked the trend with a high-single-digit percentage gain. Where do we go from here? Is the Omicron virus going to reset the path to 2020? And how do we decipher impacts of the Fed tapering, inflation and interest rate expectations, and economic growth and policy trends in China? In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai assesses the world economics and markets current standings, focusing on China and Asia, and discusses how to reconfigure for new opportunities that arise into 2022 as a year of the new normal.

2021年12月8日


Outperformer from first news of successful vaccines. Emerging ASEAN has been one of the best performers among major global equity indices since the start of November. And that was likely due to the region’s high economic leverage to normalisation after the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and its high trend GDP growth rates relative to other Emerging Market economies.

2020年12月24日

Outperformer from first news of successful vaccines. Emerging ASEAN has been one of the best performers among major global equity indices since the start of November. And that was likely due to the region’s high economic leverage to normalisation after the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and its high trend GDP growth rates relative to other Emerging Market economies.

2020年12月24日


Back to the future. Clues to US policy makers’ long game for the Dollar can be found in the long-term historical relationship between money supply growth, the inflation rate, and nominal GDP growth. Conclusion upfront: We are likely to see a long cycle of aggressive US monetary expansion ahead – to depreciate the Dollar, revive inflation, and boost nominal GDP growth.

2020年8月3日

Back to the future. Clues to US policy makers’ long game for the Dollar can be found in the long-term historical relationship between money supply growth, the inflation rate, and nominal GDP growth. Conclusion upfront: We are likely to see a long cycle of aggressive US monetary expansion ahead – to depreciate the Dollar, revive inflation, and boost nominal GDP growth.

2020年8月3日


2019 saw expensive asset classes get more expensive, a global yield back-up replaced by a yield rally, continued outperformance of DM over EM and Growth over Value (notwithstanding a few wobbles). As we approach 2020, we review market behavior during the last 12 months, the risk and opportunities going forward and make a few observations about trends that will dictate returns.

2019年12月9日

2019 saw expensive asset classes get more expensive, a global yield back-up replaced by a yield rally, continued outperformance of DM over EM and Growth over Value (notwithstanding a few wobbles). As we approach 2020, we review market behavior during the last 12 months, the risk and opportunities going forward and make a few observations about trends that will dictate returns.

2019年12月9日


“Think about what is happening worldwide right now. The US is dragging down global growth by attempting to impose trade tariffs everywhere, China is facing a major economic slowdown, Japan continues their third “lost-decade”, Germany is heading into recession, and the UK is still debating with EU about the way of Brexit. These are just the highlights of how the top five economies are doing, not even mentioning the more troublesome territories such as Italy and Argentina which may have to deal with their escalating debt problems. These markets accounted for more than 70%-80% of the global stock markets depending on which particularly benchmark one is using to measure against the performance. The issue gets more complicated when the US market, weighting over 50% in most clients’ equity portfolio, seems to be exhausted after recording the longest bull run in history whilst still hovers at all-time high. The most imminent question among investors is where to find the peace in the midst of the storm.”

2019年10月22日

“Think about what is happening worldwide right now. The US is dragging down global growth by attempting to impose trade tariffs everywhere, China is facing a major economic slowdown, Japan continues their third “lost-decade”, Germany is heading into recession, and the UK is still debating with EU about the way of Brexit. These are just the highlights of how the top five economies are doing, not even mentioning the more troublesome territories such as Italy and Argentina which may have to deal with their escalating debt problems. These markets accounted for more than 70%-80% of the global stock markets depending on which particularly benchmark one is using to measure against the performance. The issue gets more complicated when the US market, weighting over 50% in most clients’ equity portfolio, seems to be exhausted after recording the longest bull run in history whilst still hovers at all-time high. The most imminent question among investors is where to find the peace in the midst of the storm.”

2019年10月22日


Whatever happens over coming weeks and even months in the US-China trade war, Donald Trump has irreparably broken the global trade architecture. And with it, he has also forced a realignment of the global supply chain that will likely see ASEAN emerge as a new manufacturing centre.

2019年6月27日

Whatever happens over coming weeks and even months in the US-China trade war, Donald Trump has irreparably broken the global trade architecture. And with it, he has also forced a realignment of the global supply chain that will likely see ASEAN emerge as a new manufacturing centre.

2019年6月27日