It was challenging for global investors to find a market that could offer a positive return in 2022. China market can’t escape from the selloff, with H-shares, A-shares and ADRs down by 20% to 29% in dollar return in the first eleven months of the year. The market turnover was shrinking whilst foreign investors were net selling. Internally, the frequent COVID-lockdowns, a property market slump, an ongoing Internet scrutiny, and the deteriorating bilateral relationship between China and the US all contributed to the bearish sentiment in Chinese equities. Externally, the Ukraine-Russia war, high inflationary pressure, an accelerated rate hike cycle, and strengthening dollar have further weakened investors’ confidence towards risky assets.

Global markets have been subject to higher volatility so far in 2022 amid escalating inflation and recession risks. The US rate hike cycle has added further pressure to the dollar return of most foreign-currency-denominated assets due to the strengthening dollar. In this article, we describe the genesis behind the recent addition of USD hedged unit class to our Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF (9177.HK), which is the first among peers to offer USD hedging feature in Asia. For investors that are mindful of mark to market risk amid continued US interest rate hikes, as well asset owners with long duration allocation needs, the Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF is a unique tool that provides access to the long duration Chinese government and policy bank bonds with strong A1 sovereign bond rating, competitive yield of over 3%, stable yield volatility and now with the USD hedged unit class, additional optionality to capture the steady yield of China sovereign bonds whilst minimizing exchange rate risks for RMB.

Most asset classes did not perform well so far this year amid the rising interest rate environment and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, e.g., -12.8% in developed market equities, -10.1% in emerging market equities, -4.0% in global bonds, -29.1% in cryptocurrencies. The only exception was commodity, which went up over 32% year-to-date. Crude oil prices keep getting higher with no sign of a pullback in near-term, leading to a mounting inflation pressure to the global economic recovery. Investors are now thinking hard to reallocate their assets and shift away from the risky exposure. Riding the commodity rally by increasing the position in oil or gold may be one of the options, but the usual high volatility and negative carry are always the obstacles for placing any significant bets.

In the US the “triple peaks” in economic growth, earnings growth and policy stimulus will likely result in much lower returns for US equities in 2022. The persistently high inflation – which will likely run hotter in the US than Europe and Japan – is already causing greater volatility as US equities are put on tenterhooks over the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. Meanwhile US Dollar could weaken on inflation rather than strengthen on higher Treasury yields. On the other hand, Emerging Markets, usually do better during periods of Dollar weakness but this time we could see a new twist - this favours China, supported by easier financial conditions. On top of all these, how is the Omicron Virus going to impact the global markets and what are the implications for global asset allocations in 2022? Why ASEAN would be a good diversification within Emerging Markets? Further to Part 1 of our 2022 outlook piece earlier, in this Part 2 sequel our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim laid out the scenarios and discussed how we can reposition for the global shifts accordingly to address the transition to tightening and pivot from US equities.

Amidst the high risk of holding Developed Market government bonds and credits in an environment of rising inflation and historically low spreads, a frequent lament among institutions and large family offices is “but our mandate requires us to hold bonds.”

The inflation threat is now clear and present. And while equities may tolerate rising US inflation for a while longer, the Developed Market bond markets are highly vulnerable.

It is inevitable that the traditional 60/40 asset allocation split between bond and equity no longer work well as the fixed income portion is not generating sufficient stable income.

As our Senior Advisor Sayboon Lim stated in the article “Gimme shelter” that it is essential for investors to have China sovereign bonds in their asset allocation, it would be timely for us to introduce the newly launched Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF for your consideration.

Index provider FTSE Russell will add Chinese Government Bonds (CGBs) to the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) over three years from the end of October – a move that is expected to draw billions of Dollars of new portfolio inflows. Already, there has been a sharp increase in foreign inflows into RMB bonds over the past 12 months, accelerating soon after the start of the pandemic. In this 2-part series, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim highlights the drivers for new demand for CGBs and the reasons to own them.