主題相關資訊: 亞洲
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日
Chinese equities have been putting on breakouts above technical resistances just as Developed Markets are breaking down and US stocks have been collapsing into bear territory – and this does not seem coincidental. At opposite ends of the policy cycle. At the heart of this may be the policy tightening in the US, the looming consequent recession, and the search for alternatives to US assets – stocks, Treasuries and corporate credits. China’s recent commitments to fiscal and monetary stimulus are a welcome counterpoint to the falling monetary aggregates, surging rates and yields, and fiscal consolidation in the US. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discussed the significance of onshore A-shares breaking above the technical resistance of 100-day moving average, as it has a tendency to be followed by quite substantial periods of gains.
2022年6月17日
Chinese equities have been putting on breakouts above technical resistances just as Developed Markets are breaking down and US stocks have been collapsing into bear territory – and this does not seem coincidental. At opposite ends of the policy cycle. At the heart of this may be the policy tightening in the US, the looming consequent recession, and the search for alternatives to US assets – stocks, Treasuries and corporate credits. China’s recent commitments to fiscal and monetary stimulus are a welcome counterpoint to the falling monetary aggregates, surging rates and yields, and fiscal consolidation in the US. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discussed the significance of onshore A-shares breaking above the technical resistance of 100-day moving average, as it has a tendency to be followed by quite substantial periods of gains.
2022年6月17日
In the US the “triple peaks” in economic growth, earnings growth and policy stimulus will likely result in much lower returns for US equities in 2022. The persistently high inflation – which will likely run hotter in the US than Europe and Japan – is already causing greater volatility as US equities are put on tenterhooks over the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. Meanwhile US Dollar could weaken on inflation rather than strengthen on higher Treasury yields. On the other hand, Emerging Markets, usually do better during periods of Dollar weakness but this time we could see a new twist - this favours China, supported by easier financial conditions. On top of all these, how is the Omicron Virus going to impact the global markets and what are the implications for global asset allocations in 2022? Why ASEAN would be a good diversification within Emerging Markets? Further to Part 1 of our 2022 outlook piece earlier, in this Part 2 sequel our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim laid out the scenarios and discussed how we can reposition for the global shifts accordingly to address the transition to tightening and pivot from US equities.
2021年12月16日
In the US the “triple peaks” in economic growth, earnings growth and policy stimulus will likely result in much lower returns for US equities in 2022. The persistently high inflation – which will likely run hotter in the US than Europe and Japan – is already causing greater volatility as US equities are put on tenterhooks over the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. Meanwhile US Dollar could weaken on inflation rather than strengthen on higher Treasury yields. On the other hand, Emerging Markets, usually do better during periods of Dollar weakness but this time we could see a new twist - this favours China, supported by easier financial conditions. On top of all these, how is the Omicron Virus going to impact the global markets and what are the implications for global asset allocations in 2022? Why ASEAN would be a good diversification within Emerging Markets? Further to Part 1 of our 2022 outlook piece earlier, in this Part 2 sequel our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim laid out the scenarios and discussed how we can reposition for the global shifts accordingly to address the transition to tightening and pivot from US equities.
2021年12月16日
After the smooth sail in 2020, 2021 has been a challenging year for investors with heightened volatility across global markets. Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, Emerging Asia and in particular China had a good start until mid-February, but then returned all the gains and stayed largely flat on increasing regulatory headwinds in China, extended COVID-lockdowns in southeast Asia, threats of power crunch and credit defaults among Chinese property developers. On the contrary, benchmarks like S&P500, Nasdaq and Euro Stoxx 50 all reached new highs during the year, and Nikkei 225 hit its highest point in three decades. Meanwhile, the divergence in the fixed income markets went the other way, as global fixed income market suffered a mid-single-digit percentage loss in return, while China sovereign bonds bucked the trend with a high-single-digit percentage gain. Where do we go from here? Is the Omicron virus going to reset the path to 2020? And how do we decipher impacts of the Fed tapering, inflation and interest rate expectations, and economic growth and policy trends in China? In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai assesses the world economics and markets current standings, focusing on China and Asia, and discusses how to reconfigure for new opportunities that arise into 2022 as a year of the new normal.
2021年12月8日
After the smooth sail in 2020, 2021 has been a challenging year for investors with heightened volatility across global markets. Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, Emerging Asia and in particular China had a good start until mid-February, but then returned all the gains and stayed largely flat on increasing regulatory headwinds in China, extended COVID-lockdowns in southeast Asia, threats of power crunch and credit defaults among Chinese property developers. On the contrary, benchmarks like S&P500, Nasdaq and Euro Stoxx 50 all reached new highs during the year, and Nikkei 225 hit its highest point in three decades. Meanwhile, the divergence in the fixed income markets went the other way, as global fixed income market suffered a mid-single-digit percentage loss in return, while China sovereign bonds bucked the trend with a high-single-digit percentage gain. Where do we go from here? Is the Omicron virus going to reset the path to 2020? And how do we decipher impacts of the Fed tapering, inflation and interest rate expectations, and economic growth and policy trends in China? In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai assesses the world economics and markets current standings, focusing on China and Asia, and discusses how to reconfigure for new opportunities that arise into 2022 as a year of the new normal.
2021年12月8日
