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US rates and the coming recession - the little reported bombshell in Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日

US inflation expectations: Implications for global markets
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日

Pressing on from the unprecedented 2020: Outlook 2021 (Part 2 – Global)
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日

US Fiscal Explosion and Yield Curve Steepening
Yield curve steepening – which has been accelerating in recent weeks as the market contemplates a whopper of a stimulus package under a possible Biden White House – is likely to continue regardless of the winner on November 3.
2020年10月14日
Yield curve steepening – which has been accelerating in recent weeks as the market contemplates a whopper of a stimulus package under a possible Biden White House – is likely to continue regardless of the winner on November 3.
2020年10月14日