premia-parnters logo

主题相关资讯: 通货膨胀


End of Negative Yielding Bonds – What Lies Beyond
Big, long-term trends could drive Developed Market bond yields much higher than the cyclical peaks that the market is currently pricing in. There are cycles and there are secular trends. If the super cycle of rates and yields has turned – off deep negative inflation-adjusted levels – then the lesser cycles could mean- revert a lot higher around long-term uptrends. And we are at this juncture at the moment, as the negative yielding bonds have literally disappeared - the global stock of negative yielding bonds had gone from a peak of US$18.4 trillion late in 2020 to zero recently. What are the true implications behind this abrupt turn of tides? In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the big drivers for potentially much higher rates and yields for this year, and areas we are spending a lot more time monitoring, as the longer-term outlook could be far worse than just a mean reversion in nominal rates and yields as we may also be in the midst of a secular mean reversion in real government bond yields and corporate credit yields.
2023年1月17日
Big, long-term trends could drive Developed Market bond yields much higher than the cyclical peaks that the market is currently pricing in. There are cycles and there are secular trends. If the super cycle of rates and yields has turned – off deep negative inflation-adjusted levels – then the lesser cycles could mean- revert a lot higher around long-term uptrends. And we are at this juncture at the moment, as the negative yielding bonds have literally disappeared - the global stock of negative yielding bonds had gone from a peak of US$18.4 trillion late in 2020 to zero recently. What are the true implications behind this abrupt turn of tides? In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the big drivers for potentially much higher rates and yields for this year, and areas we are spending a lot more time monitoring, as the longer-term outlook could be far worse than just a mean reversion in nominal rates and yields as we may also be in the midst of a secular mean reversion in real government bond yields and corporate credit yields.
2023年1月17日

2023 Market Outlook – Part 3: ASEAN on the tailwinds of China’s reopening recovery
2023 will likely present investors with a stark economic divergence – between a West in recession and an East where growth will be boosted by recovery in China. ASEAN-5, which already enjoyed its own reopening rebound in 2022, will likely ride the tailwinds of China’s turn at a reopening recovery in the coming year. In this article, we would discuss how ASEAN-5 will likely continue to be in a sweet spot in 2023, offering some of the highest economic growth rates with relatively moderate inflation.
2022年12月12日
2023 will likely present investors with a stark economic divergence – between a West in recession and an East where growth will be boosted by recovery in China. ASEAN-5, which already enjoyed its own reopening rebound in 2022, will likely ride the tailwinds of China’s turn at a reopening recovery in the coming year. In this article, we would discuss how ASEAN-5 will likely continue to be in a sweet spot in 2023, offering some of the highest economic growth rates with relatively moderate inflation.
2022年12月12日

2023 Market Outlook - Part 1: Positioning to Benefit from Rebalancing
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日

US rates and the coming recession - the little reported bombshell in Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日

US inflation expectations: Implications for global markets
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日

Pressing on from the unprecedented 2020: Outlook 2021 (Part 2 – Global)
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日

US Fiscal Explosion and Yield Curve Steepening
Yield curve steepening – which has been accelerating in recent weeks as the market contemplates a whopper of a stimulus package under a possible Biden White House – is likely to continue regardless of the winner on November 3.
2020年10月14日
Yield curve steepening – which has been accelerating in recent weeks as the market contemplates a whopper of a stimulus package under a possible Biden White House – is likely to continue regardless of the winner on November 3.
2020年10月14日