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US equities – the postman has rung twice
Some traders borrow the expression “the postman always rings twice” from the title of that 1981 movie. It is to make the point that markets often give investors a few opportunities to get in or get out. We believe the first time the “postman” rang already for a downtrend when the S&P 500 hit an intra-day high of 4195 in early February but it failed to sustain above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January 2022 to October 2022. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the valuations and earning forecasts for US markets, and the “postman” may just have rung a second time when the S&P 500 was once again testing its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance.
2023年4月13日
Some traders borrow the expression “the postman always rings twice” from the title of that 1981 movie. It is to make the point that markets often give investors a few opportunities to get in or get out. We believe the first time the “postman” rang already for a downtrend when the S&P 500 hit an intra-day high of 4195 in early February but it failed to sustain above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January 2022 to October 2022. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the valuations and earning forecasts for US markets, and the “postman” may just have rung a second time when the S&P 500 was once again testing its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance.
2023年4月13日

Reflections on the US cycle – inflation, rates, and asset markets
Banking failures in the US, the recent epic takeover of Credit Suisse and the wipe out of its AT1, speak volumes about the stage of the cycle in Developed Markets. In particular, they warn against underestimating the risks at this stage of the asset and economic cycles. The Fed now risks a return to 1970-1985 if it loses its nerve on rates, and it is going into battle with very little – rates are lower than at previous cyclical bottoms and inflation is higher. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his reflections on the US cycle, inflations, rates and asset markets, and while US asset market outlook is worrying, why China is increasingly becoming a safe haven trade for investors.
2023年3月20日
Banking failures in the US, the recent epic takeover of Credit Suisse and the wipe out of its AT1, speak volumes about the stage of the cycle in Developed Markets. In particular, they warn against underestimating the risks at this stage of the asset and economic cycles. The Fed now risks a return to 1970-1985 if it loses its nerve on rates, and it is going into battle with very little – rates are lower than at previous cyclical bottoms and inflation is higher. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his reflections on the US cycle, inflations, rates and asset markets, and while US asset market outlook is worrying, why China is increasingly becoming a safe haven trade for investors.
2023年3月20日

2023 Market Outlook - Part 1: Positioning to Benefit from Rebalancing
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日
In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.
2022年12月5日

US rates and the coming recession - the little reported bombshell in Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日
The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.
2022年6月29日

The Great Transition
The US Federal Reserve has signalled the imminent start of the transition from the Great Stimulus of 2020-2021 to a period with new uncertainties. The Fed’s suggested pace of tapering quantitative easing was at the high end of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses his thoughts on what to expect regarding US inflation rate and 10Y UST yield, and why we need to brace for more challenging US equity and bond markets with lower return and higher risk coming up on the horizon.
2021年10月5日
The US Federal Reserve has signalled the imminent start of the transition from the Great Stimulus of 2020-2021 to a period with new uncertainties. The Fed’s suggested pace of tapering quantitative easing was at the high end of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses his thoughts on what to expect regarding US inflation rate and 10Y UST yield, and why we need to brace for more challenging US equity and bond markets with lower return and higher risk coming up on the horizon.
2021年10月5日

US equities – the challenge of scaling the “triple peaks”
The upward momentum of US equities has slowed considerably over the past 16 months, from the explosive initial rebound in late March last year. Our sense is that we would either see small gains in coming months or indeed a correction in the face of the likely peaks in economic growth, earnings growth, and policy stimulus. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses why investors in US equities may have to lower their returns expectations for 2H21 in the face of what some are calling the “triple peaks”.
2021年8月18日
The upward momentum of US equities has slowed considerably over the past 16 months, from the explosive initial rebound in late March last year. Our sense is that we would either see small gains in coming months or indeed a correction in the face of the likely peaks in economic growth, earnings growth, and policy stimulus. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses why investors in US equities may have to lower their returns expectations for 2H21 in the face of what some are calling the “triple peaks”.
2021年8月18日

Mr. Market Getting Grumpy
Recently we wrote about how investors can navigate “Mr. Market’s manic-depressive mood swings”, cautioning that those swings are likely to get shorter and more frequent. Indeed, Mr. Market may already be getting grumpy again. And it is not quite because things are going badly. It will more likely be because he has gotten ahead of himself in terms of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shared his thoughts on why a correction is due and it’s important to watch the divergences - as the high growth with low inflation narrative is wearing thin and the US economy may be losing its ability to surprise on the upside.
2021年7月22日
Recently we wrote about how investors can navigate “Mr. Market’s manic-depressive mood swings”, cautioning that those swings are likely to get shorter and more frequent. Indeed, Mr. Market may already be getting grumpy again. And it is not quite because things are going badly. It will more likely be because he has gotten ahead of himself in terms of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shared his thoughts on why a correction is due and it’s important to watch the divergences - as the high growth with low inflation narrative is wearing thin and the US economy may be losing its ability to surprise on the upside.
2021年7月22日

US-China Policy Divergence Sets the Scene for Long-term Chinese Asset Outperformance
Economic policy settings between the United States and China – which have been diverging since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic – are now on stark display as a result of the recent outcomes of the annual plenary session of the National People’s Congress.
2021年3月18日
Economic policy settings between the United States and China – which have been diverging since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic – are now on stark display as a result of the recent outcomes of the annual plenary session of the National People’s Congress.
2021年3月18日

China: Set to overtake the US economy sooner than expected
The only major economy to grow in 2020. China has turned adversity from the COVID-19 pandemic into the best growth performance in the world for 2020.
2021年1月27日
The only major economy to grow in 2020. China has turned adversity from the COVID-19 pandemic into the best growth performance in the world for 2020.
2021年1月27日

US inflation expectations: Implications for global markets
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日
The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?
2021年1月20日

Pressing on from the unprecedented 2020: Outlook 2021 (Part 2 – Global)
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
2020年12月23日

What the results of the US Elections mean for markets
So, it is official: Exit Donald Trump, enter President Joe Biden. And when the cheering and crying is done, we are likely to see that the election meant more emotionally to Americans than it does economically for the nation, or financially for the markets. The big economic and market trends are unlikely to be changed by the election.
2020年11月9日
So, it is official: Exit Donald Trump, enter President Joe Biden. And when the cheering and crying is done, we are likely to see that the election meant more emotionally to Americans than it does economically for the nation, or financially for the markets. The big economic and market trends are unlikely to be changed by the election.
2020年11月9日