Global markets have hit extremes in sentiment – extreme exuberance towards the US and Japan and extreme pessimism about China. That sentiment has in part been driven by straight line projections of the cycle – the expectation that the US will continue its current path towards “Goldilocks” and Japan can sustain its currency depreciation-led earnings growth. The risks are that the cycle in the US transitions not to “Goldilocks” but to recession, and Japan’s Yen depreciation/reflation cycle cannot be sustained without dangerous inflation and ultimately government debt consequences. For China, the extreme in pessimism is predicated on the assumption that China cannot escape its cyclical weakness of the last 12 months, notwithstanding its ample policy “ammunition”.

From “Goldilocks” to “Nightmare on Wall Street” – the convergence of structural and cyclical forces looks set to inflict a lot more damage on US assets. For some time now, we had been warning about the upside risks to US Treasury yields. That slow, upward creep in US Treasury yields recently turned into a rampage, with nasty implications for both US bonds and equities. Meanwhile structural factors are further feeding the rise in UST yields – more supply, less demand. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses about the great refinancing pressure of US government debt looming, how a lot of stuff could “break” if funding costs keep going up – including US banks – and how things may play out if the structural factors are dominant, a cyclical economic downturn may not necessarily bring down funding costs.

Bloomberg reported that Chinese policymakers, led by the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission, are planning to launch a new round of stimulus, involving a potential issuance of at least RMB 1 trillion of additional China government bonds and an upward revision of fiscal budget deficit. Some investors may be worried about its negative impact on the bond market with the potential jump in supply. In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai discusses why we agree with most analysts that it would not create any lasting impact even if the plan materializes. In fact, China remains disciplined in fiscal policy whilst the overall monetary stance stays accommodative. China government bonds have outperformed almost all other sovereign bonds this year due to the rate cuts and low inflation expectations. The long end of China yield curve in particular benefited the most year-to-date, with the yields on 10-year, 30-year, and 50-year having fallen 13.8bps, 18.0bps, and 20.2bps respectively already.

The US Treasury’s recent – and ongoing – dash for cash highlights the economy’s enormous fiscal challenges. To quote Bloomberg: “The barrage of fresh Treasury bills poised to hit the market over the next few months is merely a prelude of what’s yet to come: a wave of longer-term debt sales that’s seen driving bond yields even higher. Sales of government notes and bonds are set to begin rising in August, with net new issuance estimated to top USD 1 trillion in 2023 and nearly double next year to fund a widening deficit.” On top of that, according to calculations by asset manager Horizon Kinetics and as quoted by gold fund manager Incrementum, the US will have to refinance around half of its national debt of more than USD 35 trillion by 2025. That’s a lot of debt maturities to digest in two years. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim cautions that even if Fed rates stabilise, the longer-term outlook for US Treasury yields would likely remain risky as persistent deficits drive up debt relative to GDP, in turn driving interest payments as a percentage of GDP up “vertically”. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office is warning of the “risk of a fiscal crisis”.

트레이더들은 1981년 영화 "포스트맨(집배원)은 벨을 두 번 울린다"의 영화 제목에서 차용한 표현을 종종 사용하곤 하는데요. 이 표현은 바로 투자자들에게 시장이 종종 진입하거나 빠져나올 수 있는 기회를 주곤 한다는 점을 가리킵니다. 올해 2월 초 S&P 500 지수는 장중 최고치인 4195를 기록했지만 2022년 1월부터 10월까지의 모든 하락을 되돌림했던 피보나치 되돌림 비율 50% 선을 넘어선 상태를 지속하지 못했던 시점, “포스트맨”이 처음 벨을 울렸다는 생각이 드는데요. Say Boon Lim 당사 선임 고문은 이번 글에서 미국 시장에 대한 밸류에이션 및 수익 전망을 다룰 것이며, S&P 500지수가 또 다시 피보나치 되돌림 비율 78.6% 저항선을 시험하고 있는 현 시점, 포스트맨이 막 두번째 벨을 울렸을 수도 있습니다.

Banking failures in the US, the recent epic takeover of Credit Suisse and the wipe out of its AT1, speak volumes about the stage of the cycle in Developed Markets. In particular, they warn against underestimating the risks at this stage of the asset and economic cycles. The Fed now risks a return to 1970-1985 if it loses its nerve on rates, and it is going into battle with very little – rates are lower than at previous cyclical bottoms and inflation is higher. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his reflections on the US cycle, inflations, rates and asset markets, and while US asset market outlook is worrying, why China is increasingly becoming a safe haven trade for investors.

중국 시장은 2022년 10월 이후 중국 리오프닝과 코로나 정책 완화에 따른 강한 반등세를 보였는데요. 해외 중국주식에서 장기적인 강세장에 돌입하여 초과수익률을 낼 수 있을 것으로 기대되는 중국A주로 투자 자금 흐름 로테이션이 관찰되기 시작했습니다. 중국은 현재 리오프닝 경기 회복 궤도 속 어느 지점에 있을까요? 초과수익률을 가져다 줄 수 있는 정책 지원 섹터 리딩기업들은 무엇일까요? 이는 저희 클라이언트들에게 자주 받는 질문들입니다. 이번 글에서는 투자자 분들과의 대화 중 최근에 가장 많았던 질문 10가지를 소개해드리려고 합니다. 또, 중국의 리오프닝 그리고 그 다음 챕터인 경제성장 회복 궤도 속에서 발생되는 기회들에 대한 인사이트를 공유합니다.

Big, long-term trends could drive Developed Market bond yields much higher than the cyclical peaks that the market is currently pricing in. There are cycles and there are secular trends. If the super cycle of rates and yields has turned – off deep negative inflation-adjusted levels – then the lesser cycles could mean- revert a lot higher around long-term uptrends. And we are at this juncture at the moment, as the negative yielding bonds have literally disappeared - the global stock of negative yielding bonds had gone from a peak of US$18.4 trillion late in 2020 to zero recently. What are the true implications behind this abrupt turn of tides? In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the big drivers for potentially much higher rates and yields for this year, and areas we are spending a lot more time monitoring, as the longer-term outlook could be far worse than just a mean reversion in nominal rates and yields as we may also be in the midst of a secular mean reversion in real government bond yields and corporate credit yields.

2023년, 투자자들은 경제침체를 맞게 될 서양과 중국시장 회복 영향으로 가파른 성장세를 보일 동양 사이에 극명한 경제 차이를 보게 될 것입니다. 내년 중국 재개방 회복세는2022년 재개방 반등세를 이미 자체적으로 경험한 ASEAN-5국가들에 또 한번의 뒷바람으로 작용할 것으로 전망됩니다. 이번 논설에서는 ASEAN-5 국가들이2023년 비교적 완만한 인플레와 세계적으로도 가장 높은 수준의 경제성장률을 시현하며 어떻게 최적 지점(Sweet Spot)을 계속 선점할 수 있을지 다뤄볼 예정입니다.

In a discordant world, there are no overarching investment themes. The different parts of the world are marching to different drums – their economies and markets are driven by different cycles, different prior policy choices and factors beyond their control. The US economy and market are paying back for the extreme policy stimulus of 2020-2021. Europeans are paying back for the same, with the added pain of a war outside their control. Japan is battling a chronic ailment – extreme debt – made acute by sharply higher cost of US funds. China is at the bottom of its policy cycle, at the beginning of a path out of COVID health controls.

The American dilemma – recession by policy tightening or stagflation by policy avoidance. US GDP growth is running so low now that a recession is a very high probability event within 12 months as rates rise further. The drivers of that coming recession will be both inflation and higher rates: There can be many different variations of the balance between the pace of rate hikes and the pace of inflation. As US economic growth slows further in coming months, the US Federal Reserve will be tormented over the awful choice between the longer-term impact of inflation and the more immediate risk of recession. Yet in the end, if rate hikes do not crush US economic growth, inflation will eventually do the same, albeit with a greater lag. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim explains why bounces in US equities are likely to be “get out of jail” cards, with lower lows and lower highs the most likely outcome.

The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?

Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.

Yield curve steepening – which has been accelerating in recent weeks as the market contemplates a whopper of a stimulus package under a possible Biden White House – is likely to continue regardless of the winner on November 3.